This year’s hurricane season is shaping up to be one of the most active ones in recent times, according to the seasonal outlook issued yesterday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre. It said that an “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin and underscores the importance of having hurricane preparedness plans in place. NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of 14 to 23 named storms, with top winds of 39 mph or higher; eight to 14 hurricanes with maximum winds of 74 mph or higher; and three to seven major hurricanes - Category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of at least 111 mph.
"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.” The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, Gerry Bell, says the main uncertainty in the outlook is how much above normal the season will be.
“Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” he said. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.” NOAA scientists are continuing to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1st. Meanwhile, the director of Antigua and Barbuda’s Meteorological Services is putting the country on guard that this hurricane season may bring some serious activity.